View from the Floor: Stock Index Futures and FOMC Statement
Date: 1/25/2012
PFGBEST® Research Posts FREE Outlook for 2012
Date: 1/6/2012
CHICAGO, January 5, 2012 – PFGBEST Research, the analytical arm of one of the nation’s top Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs), has published a FREE outlook covering the gamut of commodity and financial market sectors to identify what the company’s Research Division sees as key market fundamentals and technical objectives ahead in the new year.
Anyone is welcome to sign up to receive the FREE, online publication. To sign up, go to www.PFGBEST.com/services/Research/Outlook/.
“Our analysts examine their sectors in routine blogs, available FREE, anytime on the PFGBEST.com website. But in our semi-annual PFGBEST Research Outlook publications, they delve with a much more enriched perspective into macro political conditions, global economics, and consumer decisions on what they can afford and where they (and governments!) must draw the line on pricing,” said PFGBEST President and Chief Operating Officer Russ Wasendorf, Jr.
“Through their many years of experience on the trading floor and as market technicians and commercial brokers, our PFGBEST analysts are extremely talented at citing seasonal trends with clear regard for whether break-outs are likely, based on world population, supply and demand factors, and the desire for (and ability to pay for) commodities, given the rise and fall of the currencies needed for international exchange,” Wasendorf said.
Ten analytical reports comprise the PFGBEST Research Outlook 2012. They include analysis of general currencies; a view from the institutional foreign exchange transaction desk; interest rates; stock indices, precious metals; energy markets; grains; livestock markets; and soft commodities (coffee, cocoa and sugar.)
Here are 10 topics addressed in the PFGBEST Research Outlook 2012:
1. PFGBEST energy expert Phil Flynn foresees the U.S. to be a net exporter of oil for the first time in 62 years!
2. Both bulls and bears will love the biggest yearly range in oil prices since 2008, he predicts.
3. PFGBEST precious metals Analyst Mike Daly is calling for new highs again in gold.
4. Analyst Mike Thomas expects the U.S. Fed to keep Fed Funds at current levels, sustaining low interest rates. Inflation threats will be heightened due to Middle East turmoil and threats of conflicts, and he expounds on what outcomes will result.
5. The U.S. dollar is likely to continue strong (as PFGBEST institutional forex analyst Jim Brown has been saying for a year) with U.S. treasury yields remaining at historical lows.
6. Tim Hannagan (named by Bloomberg’s Jeff Wilson as his “most accurate crop forecaster for 2011”) remains bullish on grains and has clear objectives for timing and price points for major rallies in corn, soybeans, and wheat.
7. Cattle and hog prices are predicted quarter by quarter by Robert Short.
8. Robin Rosenberg sees a long-term bullish set-up for coffee, and strength again in cocoa and sugar, while cotton will languish in sideways to lower trading band.
9. Risks to U.S. stock index futures and forebodings of the “fear gauge” known as VIX are explained by analyst Sean Lusk.
10. Paul Kavanaugh details which currencies stand to benefit from the European debt mess and possible hyperinflation of commodities.
PFGBEST Research analysts are available for interviews daily and their direct contact information is provided for anyone to utilize.
PFGBEST is a rapidly-expanding global financial services and technology firm, specializing in electronic trading, futures, forex, options, managed accounts, research and precious metals. The company is also a key source of investor education, and it offers numerous free webinars each week attended by hundreds of people wishing to further their knowledge and skills in trading, charting, comprehending various government reports, enriching their understanding of trading psychology, and many other topics. It celebrates its 20th anniversary as a registered FCM in 2012.
George W. Bush Entertains Attendees of SFO American Heroes Series Gala Dinner
Date: 11/7/2011
NAPLES, Fla. - Russ Wasendorf Sr. and SFO had the privilege of hosting former President George W. Bush as the keynote speaker to kick off the fourth annual Global Financial Leadership Conference.
The president spoke to nearly 350 invited guests on Oct. 24, sharing information about world events that the United States was a part of during his two terms as the 43rd president of the United States.
That evening, Wasendorf introduced President Bush and Laura Bush as the featured after-dinner speakers to cap off the gala dinner program. All conference participants had the opportunity of a photo with both president and his wife as they filed in to take their places at dinner. Next, in a surprise "reveal" to the audience, Mr. Wasendorf thrilled everyone in attendance by welcoming the Bushes’ twin daughters, Jenna Hagar Bush and Barbara Pierce Bush. Together at the head table for the gala dinner, the Bush family enjoyed getting to know PFGBEST Chairman and CEO Russ Wasendorf Sr. on a personal level, as well as Mr. and Mrs. Terry Duffy (CME Group chairman and chief executive officer) and Craig Donohue, CME Group president.
"Moderating" their parents’ discussion, Jenna and Barbara provoked their parents into candid, incisive, warm-hearted and enriched dialogue about their lives, their work, and what it is like to be part of a political family that has contributed so much to the democratization of the world. They were recipients of a standing ovation.
PFGBEST® Takes Lead In Seeking Court Intervention
To Release MF Global Customer Funds
Date: 11/3/2011
Customers Need Choice In The Matter Of
What Firm They Will Now Do Business With
CHICAGO, November 2, 2011 – PFGBEST today assisted in the filing of a customer petition in the Southern District of New York Bankruptcy Court for intervention to release customer assets frozen in the aftermath of the demise of MF Global.
“The purpose of this petition is to serve the customers that request to transfer their accounts to PFGBEST from MF Global,” said PFGBEST President and COO Russ Wasendorf, Jr.
“Further, we are concerned about the sanctity of the marketplace,” said PFGBEST General Counsel Rebecca Wing. “Success in releasing the frozen assets of MF Global futures and foreign exchange customers will permit the impacted customers to have a choice in where they go now, rather than allowing regulators and exchanges to force them to any particular Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) or clearing firm of the exchanges.”
This legal action goes a step beyond an emergency motion to allow customers to move to one of a short list of FCMs, Ms. Wing said. The trading customers need more than just the bare minimum of their funds that would cover their positions and enough to cover margins – they need to be able to have access to their own capital to trade in the days and weeks ahead.
PFGBEST is one of the largest, non-bank FCMs in the U.S. It is a rapidly-expanding global financial services and technology firm, specializing in electronic trading platforms, futures, foreign exchange, futures options, managed accounts, and precious metals. The company is dedicated to investor education, offering numerous free webinars each week attended by hundreds of people wishing to further their knowledge and skills in trading, charting, trading psychology, and many other areas. PFGBEST is a privately held and run FCM, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries.
CME Group Limits MF Global Trading to Liquidation Only
Date: 10/31/2011
CHICAGO, Oct. 31, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Effective immediately, and until further notice, CME's Emergency Financial Committee, in accordance with rule 975, is limiting all trading for customers of MF Global for liquidation only.
In addition, and until further notice, CME Group will no longer recognize MF Global or any of its divisions as a guarantor for purposes of floor trading privileges. Accordingly, floor brokers and traders guaranteed by MF Global or its divisions may not access the trading floor. The foregoing actions have been taken based on circumstances regarding the financial condition of MF Global.
CME Clearing will process any transfers at the last settlement price at the request of customers. Such positions will need to be re-margined at transferee firm. Customers wishing to execute a liquidating trade should contact MF Global.
Moody's Analytics: Obama's Proposal Would Prevent Double Dip
Date: 9/9/2011
By Kira McCaffrey Brecht
September 9—SFO—U.S. stocks are sharply lower in early action Friday, as the market remains weighted down by concerns regarding Europe and the euro.
While the market remains focused on Europe, there has been little positive market reaction in the wake of President Obama's speech Thursday evening. However, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi was optimistic the plan could have a positive economic impact if it were able to pass Congress.
STOCK MARKET TECHNICALS
While the U.S. stock market has been consolidating for about a month, the market is below the 200-day moving average, keeping the longer-term bias to the downside. A major potential bearish flag pattern is setting up on the daily S&P 500 chart, and a downside break through the 1145 zone would confirm that pattern, which would unleash a major fresh selling wave to the downside.
MOODY'S ANALYSIS
Pointing to Obama's proposals, Zandi said:
• "President Obama's jobs proposal would help stabilize confidence and keep the U.S. from sliding back into recession.
• The plan would add 2 percentage points to GDP growth next year, add 1.9 million jobs, and cut the unemployment rate by a percentage point.
• The plan would cost about $450 billion, about $250 billion in tax cuts and $200 billion in spending increases.
• Many of the president's proposals are unlikely to pass Congress, but the most important have a chance of winning bipartisan support."
FED PASSING BATON
The U.S. Federal Reserve may be nearly out of bullets to help the ailing U.S. economy. Indeed at his August Jackson Hole policy speech, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to shift the focus to the fiscal policymakers. With interest rates at near zero through mid 2013 and two rounds of quantitative easing behind the Fed, some say fiscal policy makers need to step up to the plate.
POLICY MAKERS NEED TO WORK FAST
"The risk of a new economic downturn is as high as it has been since the Great Recession ended more than two years ago. A string of unfortunate shocks and a crisis of confidence are to blame. Surging gasoline and food prices and fallout from the Japanese earthquake hurt badly in the spring; more recently, the debt-ceiling drama, a revived European debt crisis, and the S&P downgrade have been especially disconcerting. Confidence, already fragile after the nightmare of the Great Recession and Washington’s heated policy debates, was severely undermined," Moody's Zandi said.
"Whether the loss of faith in our economy results in another recession critically depends on how policymakers respond. Whether they will succeed in shoring up confidence is a difficult call. The odds of a renewed recession over the next 12 months are 40%, and they could go higher given the current turmoil in financial markets. The old adage that the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions is apt, but the recent free fall is disconcerting. Markets and the economy seem one shock away from dangerously unraveling. Policymakers must work quickly and decisively," Moody's Zandi concluded.
Utilities and Health Care Buck Trend and Chalk Up YTD Gains
Date: 9/8/2011
By Kira McCaffrey Brecht
Sept 8—Despite losses in the S&P 500 Index year-to-date at down 7.3%, three sectors are showing gains. The Utilities sector leads the pack with a 4.8% gain y-t-d, health care is in second place with a 2.8% gain and consumer staples shore up the winners with a 2.7% gain, according to September 6 data from Standard & Poor's equity research.
OVERWEIGHT RECOMMENDED
In fact, Standard & Poor's is recommending an "overweight" in both consumer staples and utilities as of the September 7 Standard & Poor's U.S. Investment Policy committee notes.
ALLOCATION
According to the Standard & Poor's research note, the current allocation recommendation stands at:
• 45% U.S. equities
• 15% Foreign equities
• 25% Bonds
• 15% Cash
OVERALL OUTLOOK
"Investors are trying to decide whether they should surrender to attractive valuations and buy
into a market that may be propelled by the President's jobs speech and the prospect of additional quantitative easing, or, if by doing so, they would only be responding to a siren call as the U.S. ultimately heads into recession on the heels of a renewed price decline. Despite a 12-month target for the S&P 500 that projects a price advance of nearly 17%, S&P believes that near-term risks remain elevated and advises a cautious stance, since President Obama’s job proposals may not go far enough to jumpstart a half-speed economy, combined with the reluctance of members of the House to approve proposals that would increase the deficit," Standard & Poor's equity research analysts wrote.